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A 20/20 view of the future

Anders Tychsen, Information Age

18/10/2006 20:40:18

The rapid development in communications technology will change the world. Wireless communication, environment sensors, advancements in browser engines and other technological advancements are going to change the way we access, receive and relate to information.

But how? What will happen if global connectivity begins to weaken nation-state boundaries and information, communications, media and entertainment converge into one, big digitalised world?

Is it a bright new future of information sharing and happy online gaming in full virtual reality, the end of bandwidth restrictions and the rise of real-time holographic video; or perhaps the dawn of an era of massive digital security, diminished freedom and cyber crime?

Amid the global rush to be first to develop the communication technologies of tomorrow, in 2003 the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) launched a project to examine the regulatory problems that could result from the rapid development in communication and entertainment - and how it was going to affect people and society.

A large part of the Vision 20/20 project, which ended in 2005, proposes five different future scenarios. Each scenario outlines one likely path that the rapidly evolving and converging communications environment can take in the next 15 years.

It is fascinating reading; however, not all the possible futures are bright - some are downright scary. In a world that is never offline, and where the virtual world is as important as the real one, how must social, political and economic systems adjust to maintain a working society?

A world never offline The five scenarios were developed as a result of an extensive research project that included academics, government, research institutions, consumers, the private sector and experts from Australia, the US and Europe alike. Therefore the scenarios for the future described in the report are not just applicable to Australia, but equally valid for the entire Western world.

While the future scenarios are formed as an open, collaborative prediction experiment, they have a strong visionary power.

However, Paul Roberts, leader of the Vision 20/20 project, is quick to point out that the future is too uncertain to be predicted: "The challenge lies in dealing with uncertainty - hence the attraction of using scenarios. Scenarios provide more 'headroom' in terms of being aware of what may unfold; how certain developments may interrelate with others and to free-think about what the future may be like.

"That being said, there are future developments that we can be reasonably certain about. However, they do not stand in isolation from the dynamic forces of uncertainty."

Optimism and fear The scenarios outlined in the report all point to a strong communications environment, although with very different reactions and attitudes to the technology from people and governments, ranging from the optimistic and socially responsible, to fear, privacy problems and even downright abuse.

"In thinking about the future, we urged Vision 20/20 participants to consider what they felt was attractive about the future, and what they were fearful about. Differences in individual worldviews also played a role. The differing views about these issues are reflected in the scenarios," Roberts says.

He says that the project team was at pains to identify the pre-conditions for developing the scenarios, and the formidable challenges that lie ahead in making sure that we do not end up with too many of the problems outlined in the scenarios.

Despite this, Roberts is optimistic and points out that the challenge lies not as much in the future as in the present: "I believe Professor Alan Kay (UCLA) boiled it down clearly when he noted that 'the only way to predict the future is to build it'."

The sensitive and the scary Two of the scenarios in the report are entitled "Big Daddy" and "Sensitive new age future". They do not form polar opposites, but are examples of how the same technologies can result in two very different future societies. In the Big Daddy scenario, the state forms your third parent. It actively monitors you and your children - who, by the way, have surveillance microchips surgically implanted at birth.

The state protects you - for your own good - and the population has chosen to sign away personal rights in return for the security, healthcare and education the state offers in a time of social and political turbulence. The technologies we dream about today - such as quantum computing, ultra-refined human-computer interfaces - have been realised and are accessible. There are, however, some elements of society that have been left behind - unable to pay the fees.

In the sensitive new age future, communication is without boundaries; everyone is seamlessly connected to the Net. Advances in human-computer interfaces has caused the formation of a Matrix-style Internet which is highly pervasive and with as much meaning to most people as the physical, real world.

Despite the online life, people have strong personal rights and control over how personal information is used. Household appliances are connected to ultra-fast networks, and virtual assistants featuring advanced artificial intelligence manage household duties and administrative tasks.

Distributed power has motivated the development of individual self-reliance with a minimal role for the government. Information is publicly accessible; the markets are flexible and fluid, leading to an environment of trust and cooperation.

Trusting the Net The expected massive advances in information technologies and the development of ever increasing degrees of connectedness to the Internet will naturally affect digital entertainment.

"New forms of digital entertainment will be right up there with other 'killer applications' in the future. The mix of interactivity, global connectivity, virtual identities, powerful edge devices (increasingly mobile as well as fixed) and other developments will be important drivers in entertainment," notes Roberts.

With so many devices and networks, security will be an even more important issue than today, and this means that one of the key challenges will be securing the integrity of the Internet - not a small feat considering that the Internet is a multiple platform, multiple network, global communications system.

So what will digital entertainment look like by 2020? "If I had taken a night off to relax one day in 2020, I would guess it would be because I had just purchased a funky new holographic video communicator with augmented reality applications", says Roberts.

Implications The Vision 20/20 report should be considered essential reading to any developer of computing technology - be it for entertainment purposes or otherwise, for the simple reason that the report forms the only solid example of educated guesses about the future of digital communication and entertainment. It is easy to see how the two scenarios outlined above would affect digital entertainment: In a Big Daddy situation, multiplayer computer games like America's Army, which serves as a recruiting platform for the US Army, might be extremely prevalent and controversial games be outlawed.

While games might be advanced and include virtual reality interfaces for example, diversity would give way to streamlining, and censoring of game content become rampant. On the other hand, the sensitive new age future scenario appears to offer the kind of gaming experience we dream about when watching Neo rumble in the Manhattan jungle with the agents in The Matrix - but in a safe environment and with considerable trust in the online world.

It is important to realise that the world is increasingly affected by the rapid advances in the communications environment, political instabilities and environmental concerns - all considered in the Vision 20/20 report. The development of this world will affect interactive entertainment, which at the same time can affect development in communications technologies - and thereby society at large. It would appear from the report that it might be time the computer technologies and development sector at large realised that the future might not only hold promises of technological marvels, but also a responsibility to manage these marvels.

Anders Tychsen is a freelance science journalist of diverse interests, and a PhD-candidate at the Interactive Systems and Virtual Reality Research Group with Macquarie University. His research focuses on communication and behaviour of players in multi-player games as well as the recreation of ecological systems in persistent, virtual and online worlds.

Go to www.acma.gov.au and search Vision 20/20 for the full report.